The four reasons why Putin will never agree to end war in Ukraine

 Vladimir Putin “is taking a bet” that Donald Trump will grow frustrated with ceasefire negotiations and eventually walk away from peace talks, allowing him to continue the war in Ukraine, Britain’s former ambassador to Kyiv has said.

The Russian and US leaders were locked in a two-hour phone call on Monday, which ended with minor progress. Putin, getting out ahead of Trump, addressed the Russian media just minutes after putting the phone down to his US counterpart.

“We have agreed with the President of the United States that Russia will propose and is ready to work with the Ukrainian side on a memorandum on a possible future peace accord,” Putin’s readout of the call stated, confirming that little, if any, substance had been agreed.

Trump, meanwhile, insisted that Russia and Ukraine would “immediately” begin ceasefire negotiations, but there was no detail on when or where such talks might take place.

Simon Smith, who was the UK’s ambassador in Kyiv between 2012 and 2015, said the minimal outcome of the phone call showed that Putin was “taking a risk” that Trump would fall on Russia’s side in any tussle with Ukraine over a deal, so he could continue his war.

Putin thinks time and resources are on his side

Smith, now the chair of the Ukraine Forum Steering Committee at Chatham House, said the “fundamental reason” as to why Putin is refusing to engage in any meaningful peace talks is that the Russian president “still thinks that he has got the resources and the time on his side”.

“Putin is probably convinced that Trump is not prepared to put any more significant US resources behind defending Ukraine, and he probably doesn’t believe that European countries and others can move in to fill the gap,” Smith explained.

The White House struck a deal for access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals last month following the spectacular Oval Office blow-up between the two leaders in February, where Trump grew frustrated with how much aid the US had given to Kyiv.

The US State Department estimated that it has provided $66.5bn (£49.7bn) in military assistance to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, and Trump has firmly ruled out providing any further significant assistance.

Putin, whose forces control a fifth of Ukraine and are advancing, has stood firm on his conditions for ending the war, including the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the four Ukrainian regions Russia claims.

Ukraine’s forces appear to be on the back foot, currently, despite Russia’s forces making marginal progress.

Without bolstered US aid, “Putin probably thinks he’s still got a good chance to come out on top if he carries on the sort of strategy of attritional incremental gains”, Smith said.

Trump likes Putin more than Zelensky

Putin has now “had the chance to take the temperature of Trump”, Smith continued. “I suspect he’s probably got good reason to believe that Trump likes him more than he likes [Volodymyr] Zelensky.”

“One of the many things that ghastly meeting in the White House with Zelensky told us was that Trump still hates Zelensky for not co-operating with him in 2019,” Smith explained.

The former ambassador was referring to a phone conversation between Trump and Zelensky that would become the basis for Trump’s first impeachment. Trump had asked the Ukrainian leader to essentially dig up dirt on then Democratic presidential front-runner Joe Biden.

“On the surface it looks as if some of that relationship [between Trump and Zelensky] may have been repaired,” Smith said. “But I think these things go pretty deep with Trump, and Putin is just more his kind of guy.

“Putin looks at all that and probably thinks, ‘I don’t know 100 per cent that Trump is going to come out okay for Russia, but on the balance of probability, I think that’s pretty likely’.”

Putin’s willing to ‘take a risk’ with US sanctions

Putin is also “taking a risk” with Trump that he will not proceed with plans to double sanctions on Russia, which would be “pretty bad news” for Moscow, Smith said.

Western leaders have repeatedly urged the White House to join them in imposing new sanctions on Russia, but Trump indicated on Monday, following his call with Putin, that the US was not ready to join European sanctions efforts.

Brussels and London both signalled they have not given up hope of persuading Washington to act.

The latest EU sanctions are aimed mainly at cracking down on a shipping fleet that Russia uses to export oil, circumventing a $60 (£49) a barrel price cap imposed by the G7 group of industrialised countries to limit Russia’s income.

“Putin’s got a choice to make as to whether he really believes that Trump means it when he says [he would impose new sanctions], and/or that Trump is going to be so cross with him for not playing his game and not helping Trump’s effort to win the Nobel Peace Prize that Trump turns nasty on him.

“He’s taking a risk,” Smith said. “You could say he’s taking a bet on Trump being annoyed with him, but actually not being annoyed enough [to introduce new sanctions].”

Putin suspects Trump will grow tired

Despite discussions with the US over possible peace talks, Russia has continued strikes on Ukraine.

“Putin is not continuing the strikes because he wants to underline that he won’t participate in talks,” Smith continued, “He’s just saying the peace talks don’t interest me enough.”

The former ambassador said the continued attacks on Ukraine likely act as a signal from Putin to say to Trump: “You’re going to have to make this sound more attractive to me, and I’m not going to sit around while you think about how to do this. I’m going to get on with pursuing the war.”

Putin has made “a calculation” in the hope that Trump will say, “I’m fed up of this, I’ve tried this, and America’s got no business getting involved so we’re out of here,” Smith said.

“That would suit Putin because he doesn’t believe that anyone is going to fill the gap” left by the US if Trump removed himself from peace talks and any involvement with Ukraine.